ako vidite ovaj post znači da sam valjda uspješno migrirao moj blog sa stare domene i sustava na novu adresu i izgled.
Sigurno primjećujete da je izgled nedovršen. Tako je zasad, no kako budem radio na stranici, valjda ću uspijeti spojiti nešto što će biti atraktivno i jednostavno za koristenje. Zato molim da se malo strpite u slučaju komentara na blog, web stranicu i pitanja vezanih za Financijski leksikon u za svakoga (moj mali projekt s Jutarnjim listom).
In 1937, was born the spawn of Satan, and he was named Robert E. Lucas Jr. On his scalp was etched the dreaded “666.” In the 1960s, Robert attended the Academy of the Satanists, known to the public as the University of Chicago, where he was schooled in the ways of Lucifer (Milton Friedman). In the 1970s, Robert, the antichrist, decreed that there should be no more worship in the Church of the Keynesian Cross. A secret society was formed, and in the 1990s they didst make a pact with Michael Woodford. In return for his life, Woodford was sworn to use the Tools of Satan – the functional equation, the contraction mapping theorem, the dreaded Euler equation. Further, Woodford, his henchmen and henchwomen, were to appoint Satan’s ministers to the key positions of power in the economics profession – journal editorships – where they were to enforce the use of the Tools of Satan. Publication of even one paper making use of the tools of the Church of the Keynesian Cross would mean banishment to the underworld forever.
Argentina is once again at the centre of an emerging-market crisis. This one can be blamed on the incompetence of the president, Cristina Fernández, but she is merely the latest in a succession of economically illiterate populists, stretching back to Juan and Eva (Evita) Perón, and before. Forget about competing with the Germans. The Chileans and Uruguayans, the locals Argentines used to look down on, are now richer. Children from both those countries—and Brazil and Mexico too—do better in international education tests.
Something of equal moment is occurring today. As we settle into a “new normal” catalyzed by the global financial crisis, the ensuing recession, and an uneven global recovery, traditional arbitrage models seem increasingly outmoded.For some products, low labor costs still furnish a decisive competitive edge, of course. But as wages and purchasing power rise in emerging markets, their relative importance as centers of demand, not just supply, is growing.
But these are far from the only implications of rising wages. Just as Henry Ford’s $5 day helped create a new consuming class, so higher wages in China are increasing local demand, thus reinforcing the local-investment choices of OEMs and suppliers. At the same time, there is little evidence of a zero-sum game between China and advanced economies, such as the United States. Rather, the narrowing labor-cost gap reinforces the importance of local demand factors in driving manufacturing employment. Indeed, factor costs often have the greatest impact on location decisions within a region—for example, Airbus moving to Alabama instead of Texas or North Carolina. These costs interact with policy factors, such as infrastructure spending and tax incentives, to shape a region’s overall economic attractiveness.
A related challenge is the need for new management muscle. As it gets harder to hide behind labor-cost arbitrage, regional manufacturing executives and midlevel managers will need to become both better at running a tight operational ship. They should be able to grasp the productivity potential of a range of new technologies and have enough ground-level knowledge of local markets to influence product strategies and investment trade-offs. The ability to build external relationships—with suppliers, education partners, and local-government officials who can influence the development of vibrant, sophisticated supply ecosystems—will also be a source of competitive advantage.
Since the start of 2008, government consumption at the global level has risen by 20% in real terms, whereas private consumption and fixed investment have risen just 8% and 5%, respectively. In other words, despite talk of austerity, government spending continues to run ahead of private-sector spending. That has two important implications – one structural, and one cyclical.Structurally, government debt, government spending, and the share of government within the economy must be sustainable. Government consumption’s share of global GDP has risen from 11% to 14% over the past 15 years. In 2013, it reached its highest level since 1980. At the same time, government debt-to-GDP ratios have hit record highs in many countries.In the long run, such elevated levels of expenditure (and corresponding levels of debt and deficit) are probably not sustainable, in particular, given other structural changes underway. For instance, demographic trends in many advanced economies pose challenges. Working age populations are growing more slowly, or in some countries, such as Japan, beginning to decline. Accordingly, the window of opportunity for mature economies to bring government debt levels down to sustainable levels is gradually narrowing, owing to inexorable demographic shifts.
However, fiscal restraint has also played a role in preventing economies from enjoying more robust growth and the virtuous circles that typically ensue in recovery. Equally, a form of “silent austerity” is to be found in the banking sector: increased financial regulation and associated restraint on private-sector credit supply.Weak bank lending has been somewhat offset by capital markets activity. In the Eurozone, where the credit crunch has been the most protracted, banks have been disinter mediated as large companies have gone directly to the markets to access funding. Eurozone banks’ lending to corporates is down 4% year on year, but issuance of corporate debt is up 10% year on year.
However, the problem is that bank lending still makes up80% of the total loans to corporates. So, while the burden shouldered by corporate bond markets is increasing, it is doing so slowly.
These new technologies can make the world economy more inclusive and more efficient, but they may also lead to significant dislocations. Mobile communications technology has the potential to bring 2–3 billion people into the world economy in the coming decade.
Additive manufacturing, known as “3D printing”, could remove up to 90% of the waste from some manufacturing processes. At the same time, advanced robots, which can work for as little as USD 4 per hour, may eventually displace existing employment in manufacturing.A recent study by the McKinsey Global Institute finds that these new technologies have the potential to generate a direct global economic impact in the order of USD 14–33 trillion per year in 2025. Our own simulations and estimates suggest that trend global growth could be 0.5 to 0.7 percentage points higher than in the absence of technological change, implying productivity gains comparable to those unleashed by the advent of the personal computer and internet revolutions of the 1990s.They include innovations in a number of areas, but three sectors stand out: information and communications technology (ICT), manufacturing processes, and energy extraction.In manufacturing, efficiency gains include the deployment of more advanced robotics alongside recent advances making it more practical and profitable to substitute capital for human labor. Low-cost robots can change manufacturing by increasing precision and productivity without incurring higher costs. Further efficiencies can be exploited with the use of 3D printing, which reduces waste in manufacturing, improves precision of design, and shortens complex supply chains.
The US Department of Energy anticipates that 3D printing could save more than 50% of energy use compared to today’s existing manufacturing processes. The shale revolution will exert further downward pressure on oil and natural gas prices, particularly if the technology is exported worldwide.
Labor markets in manufacturing could be materially affected as capital in the form of robotics and 3D printing replace low and semi-skilled jobs. For some economies on the cusp of joining the global manufacturing and trading system (for example in South Asia, the Middle East, Africa and parts of Latin America), development could be threatened by the substitution of cheaper and more efficient capital for labor, and by the shortening of global supply chains.Intermediary business models, including financial services, face significant challenges as a result of technology improving connectivity and increasing the opportunities for disintermediation.
The trend is worrying the country’s policy makers and business executives. Norwegians work the third fewest hours in the developed world, according to the OECD. The hourly wage in manufacturing is the highest in the world, 40 per cent above Germany’s and about double that of the US, Japan, Italy or UK, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Kristin Skogen Lund, head of national employers’ organisation the NHO and a former executive at Telenor, the Norwegian telecoms group, says: “It’s almost inevitable when things are going well for so long. My own children, 14 and 11, have never grown up with anything other than affluence. Of course it does something to us.”“When politicians say everything is OK, that is a sign of a bubble situation.”
17. O nasilnoj podlozi marksizma.
18. Jedan od niza tekstova Banka.hr o 2. mirovinskom stupu.
19. Cronomy o Liniću.
We estimate the subsequent employment losses at between 450,000 and 1 m. Quite paradoxically, given the proponents’ intentions, aggregate wage income could actually decline, since the net destruction in jobs could more than offset the increase in wages per head.
UPDATE: Tyler Cowen ima zanimljiv post o 2 papera koja obrađuju efekte minimalca u SAD-u. Ipak zaključuje
Only 11.3% of workers who will gain from an increase in the federal minimum wage to $9.50 per hour live in poor households…Of those who will gain, 63.2% are second or third earners living in households with incomes three times the poverty line, well above 50,233, the income of the median household in 2007.From where I stand, that hasn’t yet been knocked down.
“When wealth captures government policymaking, the rules bend to favour the rich, often to the detriment of everyone else. The consequences include the erosion of democratic governance, the pulling apart of social cohesion, and the vanishing of equal opportunities for all.
“Unless bold political solutions are instituted to curb the influence of wealth on politics, governments will work for the interests of the rich.”
Irish 5-year yield at a record low of 1.66%. In mid-2011 it was over 17%: pic.twitter.com/haTj5OKiOT
— Jamie McGeever (@ReutersJamie) January 20, 2014
US & China: #inequality (Gini in red) & openness (trade/GDP in blue) since 1970. pic.twitter.com/CH0o6oLyd8
— Branko Milanovic (@BrankoMilan) January 19, 2014
There’s been a 25% drop in teens on Facebook since 2011, and an 80% rise in users over 55. http://t.co/9CDZzI7yxL pic.twitter.com/nmhq1N0lh1
— Rubina Madan Fillion (@rubinafillion) January 19, 2014
Era velike #EU i velike države je gotova, stiže era decentralizacije i individualne odgovornosti. @ecrgroup pic.twitter.com/LLuBXik6QU
— Ruža Tomašić (@RuzaTomasic) January 19, 2014
14. But, in practice, general over-production, as popularly imagined, has never, so far as I can discover, been a chief cause of great dis-equi- librium. The reason, or a reason, for the common notion of over-pro- duction is mistaking too little money for too much goods.
Čitajte kao “Depresija je uvijek i svagdje monetarni fenomen”
2. Osim ovih 50ak pointova, pogledajte Rocheovih 10 ekonomskih mitova. OK su objašnjenja, pazite se MMT zamki…i dalje stvari nisu tako jednostavne
3. Good times 4 good ol’ USA, bar tako misli Janet Yellen. Nova šefica Fed-a.
Supersimpa Yellen ima poznatog muža. Njih spominje Tabarrok u postu o globalnim monetarnim elitama. Bernanke nije zaboravljen, ekipa sa Chicago Booth Schoola mu je snimila tribute pjesmicu.
4. Prije 101 godine izdan je Misesov masterpiece “Theory of Money & Credit”. Komentiraju Selgin, White i ekipa.
5. Frances Coppola uspoređuje rizike tržišta rada sa financijama u jako zanimljivom tekstu.
Coppola je odlična, no što se tiče politika, dovoljan je NGDP LT kako bi rizik ostao neoskvrnut ciklusom. Iako ona favorizira intervencije poput minimalne nadnice, one se znaju obiti o glavu.
6. Uskoro cu napisati post o nejednakosti, vjerojatno kad zavrsim knjigu i paper Branka Milanovica. U međuvremenu sam počeo gomilati linkove poput ovog. Pikketyeva knjiga (review B.Milanovića) je trenutno hot kao i tema nejednakost. Jedva čekam da izadnje na engleskom. btw, tko pise na francuskom prvo?
Svakako neki imaju veće plaće, a neki manji. Htjeli mi to ili ne. To nas ne spriječava da imamo mišljenje, pa evo rezultati tog mišljenja. J***š mišljenje kad im nismo spremni platiti onoliko koliko smo spremni trkeljati o tome. Postoje zanimljivi načini rješavanja nekih problema preko “destinacijskog oporezivanja” – pogledajte prijedlog Milesa Kimbala.
7. Već sam pisao o 20% 100k-ersima u tjednim linkovima. Ipak se nesto pomice ako prestanemo plakati o 1%erima. U stalnim dolarima se smanjio broj najsiromašnijih i povećao broj ljudi sa 100.000 USD dohotka.
8. Steve Horwitz napominje da moramo dobro razmisliti o tome sto je standard. Nije u šoldima sve. Ponekad je i u mobitelima, perilicama itd…
9. U jednom od prijasnjih pregleda sam pisao o “eksploataciji” u Aziji. Turns out…kao sto sam rekao, oni žele biti eksploatirani.
10. Još malo o Summersovoj sekularnoj stagnaciji.
11. U što se pretvorio Greenspan (hint: Keynesijanca, kaže Iza Kaminska)
12. Dok je bio maestro, presjedao je Velikoj moderaciji, periodu koji je bio kao jedna velika ekspanzija. Roche se pita zašto ekonomske ekspanzije traju duže i duže.
13. Divovi Silicijske doline ne zapošljavaju puno radnika u odnosu na prihode. Amazon je među većim poslodavcima. Usporedite to sa Siemensom ili VWom koji imaju oko pola milijuna zaposlenih globalno. Budućnost će razbiti sve što smo do sada mislili o proizvodnju, korisnosti, itd, no o tome u samostalnom postu.
A look inside Amazon’s rigorous hiring process: http://t.co/uSUhmMfqsn $AMZN pic.twitter.com/CxVs6LsrcE
— Wall Street Journal (@WSJ) January 13, 2014
14. DS raskrsćuje s RH mitovima. Povezivanje MP s bankama ćemo oprostiti.
15. EK je jedan od najboljih primjera birokratske retardacije. Kao i obično, najbolje sve prvo usosit u neku shemu bez temelja i mehanizama za normalno funkcioniranje, pa cemo kasnije dodavanjem jos birokrata i institucija spasavati pacijenta sirenjem novih malignih tumora. Kreće euro-marketing.
16. FT donosi priču o dvije europske megabanke i njihovim budućim potezima.
17. Dok se europske i dalje koprcaju u krizi, američke nižu rekorde.
18. Focus piše o šefu Blackrocka. Zanimljivo je kako ispravno navodi činjenicu da sama deregulacija nije problem već ćinjenica da je regulacija preusmjerila djelovanje financijskog sektora u tzv shadow banking bez transparentnosti i nadzora. Začuđujuće trijezno zaključuje da nije private equity problem za one koji se žale oko proizvodnje lonaca u Njemačkoj, već procesi koji se odvijaju zadnjih 20 godina.
19. U posljednjoj regulatornoj bitci su banke ipak pobijedile i Basel je olabavljen.
20. D. Kocieniewski je u NYT-u imao članak uperen protiv Irwina, ekonomista čiji radovi pokazuju da špekulanti ne voze cijene ruda, nafte itd u visine, optužujući ga da je agent za industriju. Irwin mu odgovara.
21. Odlican Vuk Vuković u zadnja dva posta!
U drugome opisuje Sorosovu igru s funtom. Posebno zanimljivo u svjetlu Sorosove novo-pronađene humanosti, dok se zaboravljaju sudbine milijuna koje su njegove igre dotakle, u VB, ali i tijekom Azijske krize i napada na Baht.
22. John Aziz razapinje nadrkanog Nassima Taleba. Must read.
23. U drugom članku Aziz naglašava kako je neizvjesnost dio svega. Rješenje nije gušenje rizika već postavljanje prioriteta. U kontekstu ekonomske politike treba staviti prioritet na današnju stagnaciju bez obzira na povuke oko inflacije i fantomskih financijskih balona.
26. U prošlim pregledima sam spominjao Cowenov “Average is over”. Evo njegovi savjeti za snalaženje u njegovoj viziji budućnosti. Kako postati “meriokrat”.
27. Unatoč koalicijskom ugovoru, Veliku koaliciju čekaju stresna vremena. Ima dosta područja za svađu, posebno sad kad su se desničari probudili vezano za minimalac. H.W.Sinn predsjednik IFO instituta, koji inače zna izvaliti svašta, ipak napominje mogućnost da minimalna nadnica Njemačku vrati u bolesno stanje.
FT se osvrće na neizvjesnost njemačkih poduzeća oko novog zakona. Kao i obično, ova intervencija će oštetiti najslabije – male poduzetnike i radnike s malo vještina, kako pokazuje primjer hotela u bivšem DDRu koji će posebno pogoditi novi minimalac.
30. EK razumije da je Europa socijalistička šupa bez budućnosti, no i dalje tjera svoje (točka 15). Budućnost ne izgleda dobro, no ako se sjetite prijašnjeg pregleda, Europska divergencija se odvija već par desetljeća.
34. 2014. račun za javne financije najrazvijenijih doseže 7 bilijuna dolara. Kako kamate rastu uvjeti rollovera će se pogoršati, no s obzirom da je rast uzrokovan vjerojatno očekivanjima boljeg rasta, pritisak na proračune neće rasti proporcionalno zbog bokje ekonomske situacije, tj. Obilnijih poreznih prihoda.
35. Dobra ekonomska situacija depresira cijene zlata. Švicarska središnja banka gubi milijarde zbog toga.
36. Hrvatska nema takve sreće. ECB koji nije spreman djelovati depresira potražnju dok vlada desetkuje ono što je ostalo od gospodarstva u ime neke socijalne pravednosti. Negativna spirala stezanja omče oko privatnog sektora i padajućih poreznih prihoda je na mjestu Što kad nas udave? Tendencija da svi budemo siromašni i jednaki je zaista hvale vrijedna. Da slučajno ne bi profitirali od nižih cijena, država će u ime zaštite potrošača ozakoniti periode u godini kada nitko ne kupuje ništa kao periode za sniženja. Ne znam što reći…koliko ćemo pustiti još da Linić & co odlučuju umjesto nas što je dobro za nas? Dok mislimo da je neoliberalizam kriv za Vladine neuspjehe – nikada (Tocka 14)
Whether you think globalization’s various effects are worth worrying about depends on how much you care about people in other countries. China is choking under hellish smog, but it has also managed to pull literally http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2014/01/06/secular_stagnation_debate_how_to_understand_it.htmlhundreds of millions of people out of abject poverty. U.S. inequality is up since Seattle, butglobal inequality has declined. The industrialization of China and (to a lesser degree) India has been the biggest and most effective anti-poverty program the world has ever seen. Capitalism has its flaws, but it works.The Seattle protesters didn’t quite foresee the escape of hundreds of millions of Chinese and Indian and other people from indigence. But they were right: a WTO-led globalization could have been implemented a lot better.
A 2012 study of 45 countries by Thorsten Beck of Tilburg University found that higher lending to firms is associated with higher growth. Higher lending to people is not.
Judge Andrew Napolitano takes issue with Pope Francis’ critique of capitalism, laid out in his recent encyclical. “Thank God, so to speak, that his teaching authority is limited to faith and morals, because in matters of economics, he is wide of the mark,” Napolitano writes. I plead ignorance on the relationship between religion and economics, so I’ll gladly defer to Napolitano: “The Pope seems to prefer common ownership of the means of production, which is Marxist, or private ownership and government control, which is fascist, or government ownership and government control, which is socialist. All of those failed systems lead to ashes, not wealth. Pope Francis must know this. He must also know that when Europe was in turmoil in 1931, his predecessor Pius XI wrote in one of his encyclicals: ‘(N)o one can be at the same time a sincere Catholic and a true Socialist.'”
You don’t need to buy that story in both or either cases (I have mixed feelings about it) but it’s just not a story about financial costs. If there’s a problem with the bailouts, it’s precisely that saving the firms rather than letting them die and be replaced by something else is a problem. The money isn’t the issue.
Even so, millions of migrants who have moved to towns and cities can’t benefit from urban welfare, education and health services because the household registration system, known as hukou, classifies them as rural residents.
*Ne slažem se s Mattovim okvirom u postu.
Na mojoj Kindle listi su
“The Alchemists: Three Central Bankers and a World on Fire” by Neil Irwin