Japan i zamka likvidnosti? Nope
Japan’s stocks are the best performers among major developed markets this year, boosting Nomura’s brokerage commissions and fees from managing share sales for companies including Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd. (2587) Net revenue from retail operations doubled last quarter to the highest in 11 years as Japanese anticipating an end to deflation shifted savings into riskier investments.“It makes sense for Japanese corporates to raise funds and spend them on equipment today rather than tomorrow if the economy is moving toward inflation,” said Shiro Yoshioka, an analyst at Japaninvest Group Plc (3827) who rates Nomura a buy. “And it’s reasonable for retail investors to opt for equities rather than keep their money in deposits with fixed interest rates.”
Japanese, who hoarded cash during 15 years of deflation, are beginning to shift to riskier assets. Households boosted their holdings of stocks and other equities by 17 percent in the quarter ended March from a year earlier to 124 trillion yen, the highest since December 2007,Bank of Japan data show. Consumer prices (JNCPIXFF) rose 0.4 percent in June from a year earlier, the most since 2008, government figures showed yesterday.
Interestingly enough this what Nomura Economist Richard Koo Said never would happen… He was clearly wrong
Dodatak
Čitam osvrt Arnolda Klinga na neke starije Sumnerove postove (2009. ili nešto tako) gdje on implicira da Sumner nema pravo kada priča o moći očekivanja na koje bi utjecala monetarna politika jer ljudi zapravo nisu forward looking. Ovo je jako zamršeno pitanje modeliranja agenta u ekonomiji (koji je u stanradnom modelu jaako racionalan). Mislim da ponašanje Japanaca opisano u ovom članku ipak daje naznaku da Kling nije baš u pravu. Zašto ne mislim da nije potpuno u krivu – iz jednostavnog razloga što će ljudi iako su forward looking, koristiti i iskustva iz prošlosti. Koliko su ljudi forward i backward looking možda vidimo danas u Hrvatskoj gdje je većina štednje u stranoj valuti jer su ljudi u prošloj državi bili naviknuti na onstantnu devalvaciju-inflaciju koja je uništavala kupovnu moć. Danas kada HNB već godinama inflaciju drži niskom, a zadnjih godina i preniskom ipak vidimo da je i lagani trend štednje u kunama brzo preokrenut početkom krize tako da današnje ishode djelomično i determiniraju prošla iskustva. No mislim da veliki dio toga leži u komunikaciji središnje banke te da bi ona mogla značajno utjecati na očekivanja. Kao što sam napisao, stvar je komplicirana i zapravo jako zanimljiva i već vidimo naznake promjena u novim generacijama modela.