Bloomberg izvještava o japanskom tržištu rada:
“Positions remain open for several months, leaving some restaurants heavily understaffed,” said Yamamoto, personnel head at the sushi-chain operator in Osaka. “The labor shortage has worsened to the point we have no choice but to increase pay.”
While nationwide pay fell in the year through January, and will probably rise less than 1 percent this year, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, smaller and mid-sized employers such as hand-cleaner maker Saraya Co. are considering salary gains of 2 percent or more. The nation is within a few years of an overheated job market that makes inflation, not deflation, Japan’s challenge, economist Masaaki Kanno says.
“By 2017, the focus of the argument will shift to how to contain inflation — once the fire is set, it spreads really quickly,” said Kanno, chief Japan economist in Tokyo at JPMorgan Chase & Co., who previously worked at the country’s central bank. “In two or three years, the wage increases will be more remarkable due to the labor market heating up.”
Kanno predicts the number of open positions for every job seeker will climb to 1.5 by 2017, from 1.04 in January, a figure unseen since 1974 — when then-Prime Minister Kakuei Tanaka was implementing an unprecedented public-spending boom.
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s efforts to wring deflation out of the world’s third-largest economyhave relied on monetary expansion that’s sent the yen down 15 percent against the dollar since the start of 2013. With nuclear reactors shuttered after the 2011 Fukushima meltdowns, energy costs have driven gains in consumer prices, which rose 1.4 percent in the year to January.
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Što se događa? Dok Kuroda ispaljuje hitce kroz monetarnu politiku, čini se da i fiskalni stimulus vezan za ponovnu izgradnju regije koja je pogođena tsunamijem 2011 pomaže. Ekspanzivna monetarna i fiskalna politika napokon podižu potražnju.
S druge strane ipak postoje svojevrsni negativni supply šokovi, tj trendovi. Gašenje nuklearki, kao i smanjena radna snaga su negativni efekti koji djeluju točno kako bi i trebali – smanjuju aktivnost i povećavaju inflaciju. Zasad je rast potražnje ipak jača “sila” s obzirom da su oba negativiteta koja proizlaze iz ponude dugotrajni procesi koji će imati dugoročne negativne posljedice.
No tržište rada se pregrijava i izvjesno je da ćemo uskoro vidjeti pravu monetarnu inflaciju koja je održiva. No nije za očekivati da će Kuroda pogoditi 2% inflacije do 2015. Negativni utjecaj će imati podizanje ekvivalenta PDV-a u Japanu i to će biti veliki test za BoJ. Mnogi analitičari očekuju da će BoJ podignuti ciljeve za monetarnu bazu kako bi offsetao negativne efekte na potražnju. Ako položi taj test, Kuroda se zaista može smatrati jednim od najboljih centralnih bankara na Zemlji jer točno zna što mu je posao i što kontrolira – novi “maestro”.
