Čini se da je pamflet koji je izašao kao dio kvartalnog izvještaja BoE ponovno pokrenuo raspravu oko monetarne teorije kakva nije viđena otkad je Zeitgeist movie Međuzemljem poslao anti-fractional-rotschild-etc econotrollove koji su mislili da je 45 minuta filma dovoljno da trumpa 200ak godina bavljenja monetarnim fenomenima.
“Positions remain open for several months, leaving some restaurants heavily understaffed,” said Yamamoto, personnel head at the sushi-chain operator in Osaka. “The labor shortage has worsened to the point we have no choice but to increase pay.”
While nationwide pay fell in the year through January, and will probably rise less than 1 percent this year, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, smaller and mid-sized employers such as hand-cleaner maker Saraya Co. are considering salary gains of 2 percent or more. The nation is within a few years of an overheated job market that makes inflation, not deflation, Japan’s challenge, economist Masaaki Kanno says.
“By 2017, the focus of the argument will shift to how to contain inflation — once the fire is set, it spreads really quickly,” said Kanno, chief Japan economist in Tokyo at JPMorgan Chase & Co., who previously worked at the country’s central bank. “In two or three years, the wage increases will be more remarkable due to the labor market heating up.”
Kanno predicts the number of open positions for every job seeker will climb to 1.5 by 2017, from 1.04 in January, a figure unseen since 1974 — when then-Prime Minister Kakuei Tanaka was implementing an unprecedented public-spending boom.
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s efforts to wring deflation out of the world’s third-largest economyhave relied on monetary expansion that’s sent the yen down 15 percent against the dollar since the start of 2013. With nuclear reactors shuttered after the 2011 Fukushima meltdowns, energy costs have driven gains in consumer prices, which rose 1.4 percent in the year to January.
43. Here’s why Bitcoin-the-network needs Bitcoin-the-currency by Timothy B. Lee
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In 1937, was born the spawn of Satan, and he was named Robert E. Lucas Jr. On his scalp was etched the dreaded “666.” In the 1960s, Robert attended the Academy of the Satanists, known to the public as the University of Chicago, where he was schooled in the ways of Lucifer (Milton Friedman). In the 1970s, Robert, the antichrist, decreed that there should be no more worship in the Church of the Keynesian Cross. A secret society was formed, and in the 1990s they didst make a pact with Michael Woodford. In return for his life, Woodford was sworn to use the Tools of Satan – the functional equation, the contraction mapping theorem, the dreaded Euler equation. Further, Woodford, his henchmen and henchwomen, were to appoint Satan’s ministers to the key positions of power in the economics profession – journal editorships – where they were to enforce the use of the Tools of Satan. Publication of even one paper making use of the tools of the Church of the Keynesian Cross would mean banishment to the underworld forever.
Argentina is once again at the centre of an emerging-market crisis. This one can be blamed on the incompetence of the president, Cristina Fernández, but she is merely the latest in a succession of economically illiterate populists, stretching back to Juan and Eva (Evita) Perón, and before. Forget about competing with the Germans. The Chileans and Uruguayans, the locals Argentines used to look down on, are now richer. Children from both those countries—and Brazil and Mexico too—do better in international education tests.
Something of equal moment is occurring today. As we settle into a “new normal” catalyzed by the global financial crisis, the ensuing recession, and an uneven global recovery, traditional arbitrage models seem increasingly outmoded.For some products, low labor costs still furnish a decisive competitive edge, of course. But as wages and purchasing power rise in emerging markets, their relative importance as centers of demand, not just supply, is growing.
But these are far from the only implications of rising wages. Just as Henry Ford’s $5 day helped create a new consuming class, so higher wages in China are increasing local demand, thus reinforcing the local-investment choices of OEMs and suppliers. At the same time, there is little evidence of a zero-sum game between China and advanced economies, such as the United States. Rather, the narrowing labor-cost gap reinforces the importance of local demand factors in driving manufacturing employment. Indeed, factor costs often have the greatest impact on location decisions within a region—for example, Airbus moving to Alabama instead of Texas or North Carolina. These costs interact with policy factors, such as infrastructure spending and tax incentives, to shape a region’s overall economic attractiveness.
A related challenge is the need for new management muscle. As it gets harder to hide behind labor-cost arbitrage, regional manufacturing executives and midlevel managers will need to become both better at running a tight operational ship. They should be able to grasp the productivity potential of a range of new technologies and have enough ground-level knowledge of local markets to influence product strategies and investment trade-offs. The ability to build external relationships—with suppliers, education partners, and local-government officials who can influence the development of vibrant, sophisticated supply ecosystems—will also be a source of competitive advantage.
Since the start of 2008, government consumption at the global level has risen by 20% in real terms, whereas private consumption and fixed investment have risen just 8% and 5%, respectively. In other words, despite talk of austerity, government spending continues to run ahead of private-sector spending. That has two important implications – one structural, and one cyclical.Structurally, government debt, government spending, and the share of government within the economy must be sustainable. Government consumption’s share of global GDP has risen from 11% to 14% over the past 15 years. In 2013, it reached its highest level since 1980. At the same time, government debt-to-GDP ratios have hit record highs in many countries.In the long run, such elevated levels of expenditure (and corresponding levels of debt and deficit) are probably not sustainable, in particular, given other structural changes underway. For instance, demographic trends in many advanced economies pose challenges. Working age populations are growing more slowly, or in some countries, such as Japan, beginning to decline. Accordingly, the window of opportunity for mature economies to bring government debt levels down to sustainable levels is gradually narrowing, owing to inexorable demographic shifts.
However, fiscal restraint has also played a role in preventing economies from enjoying more robust growth and the virtuous circles that typically ensue in recovery. Equally, a form of “silent austerity” is to be found in the banking sector: increased financial regulation and associated restraint on private-sector credit supply.Weak bank lending has been somewhat offset by capital markets activity. In the Eurozone, where the credit crunch has been the most protracted, banks have been disinter mediated as large companies have gone directly to the markets to access funding. Eurozone banks’ lending to corporates is down 4% year on year, but issuance of corporate debt is up 10% year on year.
However, the problem is that bank lending still makes up80% of the total loans to corporates. So, while the burden shouldered by corporate bond markets is increasing, it is doing so slowly.
These new technologies can make the world economy more inclusive and more efficient, but they may also lead to significant dislocations. Mobile communications technology has the potential to bring 2–3 billion people into the world economy in the coming decade.
Additive manufacturing, known as “3D printing”, could remove up to 90% of the waste from some manufacturing processes. At the same time, advanced robots, which can work for as little as USD 4 per hour, may eventually displace existing employment in manufacturing.A recent study by the McKinsey Global Institute finds that these new technologies have the potential to generate a direct global economic impact in the order of USD 14–33 trillion per year in 2025. Our own simulations and estimates suggest that trend global growth could be 0.5 to 0.7 percentage points higher than in the absence of technological change, implying productivity gains comparable to those unleashed by the advent of the personal computer and internet revolutions of the 1990s.They include innovations in a number of areas, but three sectors stand out: information and communications technology (ICT), manufacturing processes, and energy extraction.In manufacturing, efficiency gains include the deployment of more advanced robotics alongside recent advances making it more practical and profitable to substitute capital for human labor. Low-cost robots can change manufacturing by increasing precision and productivity without incurring higher costs. Further efficiencies can be exploited with the use of 3D printing, which reduces waste in manufacturing, improves precision of design, and shortens complex supply chains.
The US Department of Energy anticipates that 3D printing could save more than 50% of energy use compared to today’s existing manufacturing processes. The shale revolution will exert further downward pressure on oil and natural gas prices, particularly if the technology is exported worldwide.
Labor markets in manufacturing could be materially affected as capital in the form of robotics and 3D printing replace low and semi-skilled jobs. For some economies on the cusp of joining the global manufacturing and trading system (for example in South Asia, the Middle East, Africa and parts of Latin America), development could be threatened by the substitution of cheaper and more efficient capital for labor, and by the shortening of global supply chains.Intermediary business models, including financial services, face significant challenges as a result of technology improving connectivity and increasing the opportunities for disintermediation.
The trend is worrying the country’s policy makers and business executives. Norwegians work the third fewest hours in the developed world, according to the OECD. The hourly wage in manufacturing is the highest in the world, 40 per cent above Germany’s and about double that of the US, Japan, Italy or UK, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Kristin Skogen Lund, head of national employers’ organisation the NHO and a former executive at Telenor, the Norwegian telecoms group, says: “It’s almost inevitable when things are going well for so long. My own children, 14 and 11, have never grown up with anything other than affluence. Of course it does something to us.”“When politicians say everything is OK, that is a sign of a bubble situation.”
17. O nasilnoj podlozi marksizma.
18. Jedan od niza tekstova Banka.hr o 2. mirovinskom stupu.
19. Cronomy o Liniću.
Political activists allied with Argentina’s government increased pressure on retailers in a very personal way on Friday: They plastered the city with poster-size photos of retail executives, accusing them of fueling the inflation that officials are scrambling to tame.The posters, featuring head shots of executives from the local units of Wal-Mart Stores, Carrefour SA and other companies, were posted on walls, bus stops and newspaper kiosks across the capital.
“These are the people who steal your salary,” the posters say. “They raised the price of everything to take your money.” The companies either declined to comment or didn’t return calls about the posters.
Created by United and Organized, a group of politically active young people loyal to President Cristina Kirchner , the posters appeared as Mrs. Kirchner urged Argentines to work “elbow to elbow” with the government to report unfairly high prices and stop “the looting” of ordinary people. Two weeks ago, the government devalued the peso, helping fuel inflation and prompting many businesses to raise prices by 20% or more.
“I know all of them,” Mr. Capitanich said. “They are all undercover agents. Argentines should know that independent, objective economists do not exist. I want to say emphatically that when unscrupulous businessmen raise prices, it has absolutely nothing to do with macroeconomic variables.”
Mr. Capitanich also criticized what he called the arrogance of lawmakers on the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee. During a hearing for President Barack Obama’s nominee to be the next ambassador to Buenos Aires on Thursday, senators questioned Argentina’s commitment to democracy and its management of the economy.
To se događa kada dolazi do prelaska granica kompetencija te da to prekoračenje dovodi do strukturno bitne promjene na štetu članica.ECB ima mandat koji je ograničen na monetarnu politiku. Ona ne može voditi vlastitu ekonomsku politiku, već može podržavati gospodarsku politiku monetarne unije. Ako se OMT na Europskom sudu kvalificira kao vlasitita gospodarska mjera, ona očito krši podjelu kompetencija. Takva promjena u kompetencijama je strukturno bitna, jer OMT postaje nadređen europskoj politici “spašavanja” članica, što je ipak u ingerenciji zemalja članica. OMT bi također mogle dovesti do preraspodjele među članicama i time dobiti konturu financijskog izjednačavanja, koji EU ugovori ne predviđaju
Ako OMT krši i zabranu monetarnog financiranja proračuna, opet se radi o strukturno bitnom prelasku granica kompetencija, posebno jer primarno pravo jasno normira zabranu financiranja zamalja članica i osigurava proračunsku odgovornost Bundestaga.Ukoliko OMT-i budu proglašeni protivni EU primarnom pravu Unije, mogu se ponuditi smjernice koje bi bile u skladu s primarnim pravom.
Odluku o OMT ne pokriva mandat ECB-a. Monetarna politika je prema formi, sistematici i ciljevima Ugovora primarno odvojena od gospodarske politike članica. Ograničenje se odnosi i na objektivno postavljeni cilj kao i mjere za postavljanje cilja i povezanost te mjere s drugim pravilima. Za smatranje OMT odluke mjerom gospodarske poltike je presudan upravo cilj, koji je neutralizacija premija na kamate obveznica pjojedinih zemalja članica euro-zone. ECB smatra da je izvor potraživanja te premije od strane sudionika tržišta strah od reverzibilnosti eura. Po mišljenju Bundesbanka, takve premije pokazuju skepsu sudionika tržišta da će pogođene zemlje disciplinirano upravljati proračunom. Selektivna kupnja obveznica samo pojedinih zemalja je indikator da se OMT može kvalificirati kao mjera gospodarske politike jer je u operativnom okviru ESCB-a nepoznato različito tretiranje među zemljama članicama. Paralelna politika programa pomoći EFSF-a ili ESM-a kao i rizik potkopavanja njihovih ciljeva utvrđuju ovaj zaključak. Kupnja pojedinih obveznica kroz OMT kako bi se smanjio teret kamata za pojedine zemlje je funkcionalni ekvivalent programa pomoći spomenutih institucija – no bez legitimne parlamentarne kontrole.
Čl.123 St.1 Ugovora o Europskoj uniji zabranjuje ECB-u kupnje obveznica na primarnom tržištu. Ova zabrana se ne može zaobići kroz funkcionalno ekvivalentne mjere. Činjenica da će kupnje biti sterilizirane, selektivnost kupnji kao i paralelnost s EFSF-omi ESM-om ukazuju da je OMT zabranjena zaobilaznica spomenutog članka. Tome valja pridodati spremnost da se kroz kupljene obveznice sudjeluje u restrukturiranju javnog duga, povećani rizik, namjeru zadržavanja obveznica do dospijeća , utjecaj na formiranje cijena na tržištu i poticanje udionika tržišta na kupnju na primarnom tržištu. To što je ECB-ov cilj da se pojača transmisijski mehanizam, ne mijenja ništa vezano za ovaj predmet prema viđenju BVG-a. Iako kupnje obveznica u nekim slučajevima mogu pridonijeti ciljevima monetarne politike, to ne čini OMT mjerom monetarne politike.
Kad bi OMT bio tako postavljen da ne podriva kondicionalnost EFSF-a i ESM-a, te da zapravo podržava gospodarsku politiku Unije, stajalište BVG-a bi bilo drugačije. S pogledom na Čl.123 trebalo bi isključiti mogućnost neograničene kupnje državnih obveznica i izbjeći utjecanje na cijene na tržištu.
Koliko kreacija OMT-a i provođenje istih mogu povrijediti ustavni identitet Temeljnog zakona trenutno nije vidljivo i ne ovisi o sadržaju i opsegu OMT-a koji bi bili u skladu s s primarnim pravom.
UPDATE Ništa od ovog očito.
Iz statementa, jako tužna slika europske monetarne stvarnosti (moj bold):
According to Eurostat’s flash estimate, euro area annual HICP inflation was 0.7% in January 2014, after 0.8% in December. This decline was mainly due to energy price developments. At the same time, the inflation rate in January 2014 was lower than generally expected . On the basis of current information and prevailing futures prices for energy, annual HICP inflation rates are expected to remain at around current levels in the coming months.
Turning to the monetary analysis, data for December 2013 confirm the assessment of subdued underlying growth in broad money (M3) and credit. Annual growth in M3 moderated to 1.0% in December, from 1.5% in November. Deposit outflows in December mirrored the strong sales of government and private sector securities by euro area MFIs, which, in part, could be related to adjustments by banks in anticipation of the ECB’s comprehensive assessment of banks’ balance sheets. These developments also affected annual growth in M1, which moderated to 5.8% in December but remained strong. As in previous months, the main factor supporting annual M3 growth was an increase in the MFI net external asset position, which continued to reflect the increased interest of international investors in euro area assets. The annual rate of change of loans to the private sector continued to contract. The annual growth rate of loans to households (adjusted for loan sales and securitisation) stood at 0.3% in December, broadly unchanged since the beginning of 2013. The annual rate of change of loans to non-financial corporations (adjusted for loan sales and securitisation) was -2.9% in December, after -3.1% in November.